ZiPS projects both the Mariners and Angels for 85 wins, putting the two clubs in a tie for the third AL Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays and Rays. The winter meetings are quickly approaching and before you know it will be time for Spring Training. FanGraphs Membership. Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young with a sterling 2.43 ERA, and he was joined in the sub-3.00 ERA club by Brandon Woodruff (2.56) and Freddy Peralta (2.81). The Mariners may have somethingto say about that, though, making some big moves in hopes of ending baseball's longest postseason drought dating back to 2001. Even if they are the only one this time around, I like the Dodgers to keep MLB's 100-win streak going. MLB. Because of a below-average lineup, on its best days, the Marlins exciting rotation will be wasted. It's always possible Aaron Nola gets back to ace level and Ranger Surez has all kinds of talent, possibly giving the Phillies a Big Three. The AL playoff picture will likely not come as a surprise. That is, we'll list the win total for the 2022 season from Caesars Sportsbook and pick whether the team will win more (the "over") or fewer (the "under") games. But that quickly changed, and the result was a disappointing 77-85 season. The Phillieswere one of several teams competing near the end of the season for a wild card spot before the Cardinals went on their wild winning streak to take away that final spot. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and . 1. Standings. The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 5:30 p.m. Things have frantically fallen into place since the new labor deal came together on March 10, with every team trying to jam most of its winter moves into just a few weeks. As much as I love Shane McClanahan, he won't be carrying an ace workload. The results of each simulation are tallied together to create the most likely outcomes of the divisions, playoffs and World Series. NL Playoffs: Wild-Card Series A: Mets over Brewers Read on for predictions for every game involving a Top 25 team on the schedule over the next seven days. Arizona is avoiding a total rebuild and the Ketel Marte extensions signals he wont be moved. That'll change this year, despite his being projected to hit ten to fifteen fewer homers than that. It's fun when you hit it and you get to show you're mature enough to be accountable and use self-deprecating humor when you lose badly. Toronto has the best odds of winning the pennant at 16.9 percent, while the White Sox and Astros trail narrowly behind at 15.2 and 13.9 percent, respectively. New York Mets. With the signing of Max Scherzer and the acquisition of Bassitt, the Mets' 1-2-3 punch, when healthy, is now deGrom, Scherzer and Bassitt, and that's before getting to Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco. October 6th, 2022. Los Angeles Dodgers: +600. Milwaukee has made the playoffs four years in a row, a streak that should continue as the Cardinals didn't do much to close the gap. The moves made this offseason ensure this team will be competitive, maybe even enough to play in October under a 14-team playoff format. The pitching staff is worrisome. FIVE BIG QUESTIONS:AL East | AL Central | AL WestNL East | NL Central | NL West. Having also crammed these past few weeks, USA TODAY Sports presents its 2022 record predictions, an annual exercise in prognostication attempting to make sense of what went down this offseason and how it fits into team trajectory. Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports. Despite signing Trea Turnerin free agency, neither ZiPS nor PECOTA views the Phils as a major threat to win this division. The rotation could be in tatters behind Zack Wheeler. They didn't re-sign Miley and traded away franchise icons Winker and Suarez in a salary dump before signing Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and trading for Mike Minor. The loss of Gray takes away one arm that found success pitching in Colorado, but German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela continued to prove last season that they've figured it out. Do I sound hopeful? There is some volatility in our projections for theBraves, who look like the favorite to win the NL East but finish as low as third place in the division standings. But even with Seager gone, Turner shifted from second to shortstop and Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor will occupy second base. Justin Verlander is back and were expecting healthy seasons out of Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman. This offseason, they're doing their part to make sure they don't miss the wild card this time. PECOTA projects both the Twins and Guardians for 88 wins, with the White Sox at 78. Were seeing the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics head in opposite directions. The Mariners, as currently constructed, are going to be a better, more well-rounded baseball team in 2022 than they were in 2021. The model likes the Dodgers to win the pennant and finish with the best record in baseball, while the Giants are the second-most likely team to win the pennant, barely edging out the Braves, who are likely to earn the second bye by virtue of winning their division with the second-best record among division winners. Milwaukee had a relatively quiet offseason after finishing seven games behind St. Louis last season, but PECOTA projects the team's vaunted pitching staff to allow . With that, multiple analysts within The Athletes Hub have sat down and explained their personal opinions on what could take place. For now, well be focused on development for the young pitchers and the eventual debuts of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. With considerable improvement expected from Ronald Acua Jr. and Ozzie Albies, ZiPS thinks Atlanta is in good shape, projecting the club for another tie with the Mets at 94 wins apiece. The reason for the model's lack of trust in them in 2022? The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are all strong playoff contenders, for me. Four teams won at least 100 in 2019. Should-be ace Jack Flaherty has a shoulder injury. I was going to be choosing between the Red Sox and Rays and the Rays' number is four higher, so here we are. By Dom Luszczyszyn. Bookmark this page for in-season updates to our MLB predictions. Copyright 2023 Sporting News Holdings Limited. The breakout season by the Giants mixed up the run of Dodgers' dominance, but the model expects Los Angeles to reclaim its crown in 2022. Projected AL East Standings: 1. Notably, ZiPS and PECOTA both project the Angels to be significantly better than the Rangers, whose moves have been much splashier than the Halos in the past two offseasons. Theyll be better than the Pittsburgh Pirates, but at least we can say we like the outlook for Pittsburghs future. Now, the Red Sox also have Trevor Story, who should certainly enjoy teeing off the Green Monster. Maybe it's a case where I just didn't learn my lesson. Despite employing Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Halos missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season in 2022. The model works by using past player data to project how they will perform in 2022. Hes going to be one of the best players in MLB before long and some even think hell get MVP votes in 2022. mlb preview 2022. The Diamondbacksfinished tied with Baltimore for the worst record in baseball in 2021, but like the Orioles, they are starting to see the future of the franchise. TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. USA TODAY. SEA . The Philadelphia Phillies committed to spending money this offseason, improving the lineup with Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. MLB predictions 2022: Final standings, playoff projections, World Series odds for every team, Trading for Matt Chapman a better fit for rising Blue Jays than signing Freddie Freeman, Reds, As top list of five MLB fan bases experiencing post-lockout blues, Dodgers, Mets earn high marks; Yankees confuse, Seiya Suzuki has won over Cubs' clubhouse; next impression will come with bat, Cody Bellinger is struggling again, but Dodgers are so good that it might not matter. Check out the Major League Baseball Detailed Standings including East, Central and West Division Stats on Baseball-Reference.com. Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver look like they could front Arizona's rotation at some point, but for now, those two spots belong to the more experienced Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner. Milwaukee finished with a DEF of 56, which was eight more runs than the next best team. Ryan Fagan ( @RyanFagan ) Here's who they think will rule the ninth inning in 2023. March 1st, 2023. It's a good, though not great, mix of position players. Whenthe Padresmade the playoffs in the abbreviated 2020 season, many expected they'd take that next step in 2021 and be a true World Series contender. But this will be a season for fans to count on young talent gaining experience to help the next reloaded Oakland team. MLB Spring Training Standings 2023. The two big prospects in the Trea Turner/Scherzer trade, Josiah Gray will slot into the rotation and Keibert Ruiz should become the everyday catcher. As far as my place in all this, feel free to jump over to my SportsLine page to see my picking acumen from last season. The model has them in third in the AL East, but it would surprise no one to see them win the division. Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel each had solid debut seasons in 2021, and return as established starters with Ian Happ and Willson Contreras. CHW Chicago White Sox. The East looks like a potential power in the National League, as well as the American League. We also like the move to acquire both Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez. While the MLB season is still a few months away, there has been plenty of excitement to what the new campaign could bring. Design and development by Jay Boice. 2 starter acquired before being more optimistic with our MLB predictions. LAD Los Angeles Dodgers. MORE:Seiya Suzuki has won over Cubs' clubhouse; next impression will come with bat. Instead, the club went 81-81 and missed the postseason, finishing 11 games behind the upstart Guardians. Wed also feel comfortable projecting a Willson Contreras trade in our MLB predictions, coming in July. The St. Louis Cardinals strengthened their rotation depth this offseason, signing Steven Matz. MLB OFFSEASON GRADES:Dodgers, Mets earn high marks; Yankees confuse. Even after Gausman walked in free agency, San Francisco still returns Logan Webb, who is coming off a fantastic postseason, and bring back Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. The Phillies Will Need The Long Ball For A Long Shot World Series Comeback . All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Here's what experts think. Unfortunately, the Jacob deGrom injury is a massive blow. It also highlights the risk of a starting rotation with so many durability worries. The AL East is the best division in baseball, and it doesn't take a model to know that. College Basketball Week 17 Top 25 Predictions Note: Projected winners are listed in bold. In fact, they lost their top free agent, shortstop Dansby Swanson, to the Cubs. Close. Key player: Luis Robert. They added Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and 2021 All-Stars in Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker Nobody really knows what to make of theAngels. The amount of money the Mets have dished out is absurd. They have the best hitter of this generation in Mike Trout and the most talented player of all time in Shohei Ohtani, yet they continue to finish below .500. Just looking around the NL West, there are two bad teams. Can the Los Angeles Angels avoid bad fortune? The Dodgers are currently favored to take it all. If there werent enough concerns, early IL stints for Evan Longoria and Lamonte Wade Jr. heighten worries with the Giants lineup and its diminishing depthj. Everyone needs to get their two cents in and, why not? The slugging corner infielders of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado make up a powerful middle-of-the-order tandem, and Tommy Edman should help at the top of the lineup. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. At least they have one of the best MLB lineups. Cody Bellinger returns to All-Star form. The Rockies don't figure to be in the mix for the playoffs in 2022, but that lineup could be fun to watch. It's been more than a decade since the Phillies made the playoffs but with Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber on board, this may be the best all-around team they've put together in recent years Credit to the Marlins for spending some money on Avisail Garcia ($53 million) and Jorge Soler ($36 million). A young Tigers team will take another step forward . March 30, 2022. The NL Central has not had a team repeat as division winner since the Cubs repeated in first place in 2016 and 2017. Put yourself out there. There's certainly a void in the lineup without Tatis (and once his wrist is fully recovered, do we trust his shoulder to stay put the rest of the way?) The model isn't too favorable on them jumping right back into contention in 2022. (As a reminder, Emmanuel Clase did it in 2022 . But neither system is buying Texas as a contender in 2023. The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the 20,000 simulations. Let's start things off with a prediction about one of my favorite players to target in fantasy baseball drafts. Robbie Ray, the AL Cy Young winner, is also gone. Support FanGraphs. ET (ESPN). Alek Thomas should make his debut at some point in 2022 to join fellow young bats like Ketel Marte, Daulton Varsho and Carson Kelly. Cactus League. The model really likes the rotation with Steven Matz joining Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty, who could miss some time with a shoulder injury. Even over 162 games, surprises abound. With the new campaign comes the intrigue over how it will turn out. The rest of the AL Central is largely thinking about the future. I took the Rays' under (it was 86) last year and got badly burned. Across the division, the Twins had a perplexing winter. Mega Picker; . To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section, register for a free account . It's Cleveland vs. Minnesota for the AL Central title. You famously cannot predict baseball. Now, did that stop us from asking a number of MLB . Behind the Jays, it could go either way between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Losing Kevin Gausman (Toronto Blue Jays and Buster Posey (retirement) are two huge blows, leaving voids that cant be filled directly. The model is also high on the pitching of the Giants, giving San Francisco a major edge going into the postseason even as a wild-card team. AL Central predictions. Here are 10 predictions that go against general public sentiment, but I still think have a decent shot at happening. Jarred Kelenic still needs to make a lot of strides. The Braves, on the other hand, werent a major player in free agency. Printed from TeamRankings.com - 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. They're expected to have the league's highest payroll in 2023, but it won't be enough. If that happens, Tampa Bay is in business. Mookie Betts felt quiet in 2021, but he's still one of baseball's best at the dish. Is the NL West a two- or three-team race? Losing Robbie Ray and Steven Matz will hurt the rotation, but the addition of Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi, along with a full season of Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah will help bolster the pitching staff. Bringing in Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler adds some thump to the outfield in an outfield that has been inconsistent in recent years. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Duke vs. UNC odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.. After these rivals, located just 7 miles apart, met in the . The Padres are absolutely a fringe playoff contender in the NL, but I'm not seeing them on the cusp of 90 wins. With just days to go until Opening Day, hope is high among all teams that this will be their year to win a World Series or at least have an enjoyable 162-game season. Case in point, Jon Lester had a 4.36 ERA compared to a 5.40 FIP in 12 starts last season after they acquired him and he's now retired. The fourth and final 2022-23 regular-season meeting in the Battle of Florida is set for Tuesday as the Florida Panthers head to Tampa to take on the Lightning and their No.1 home offense. Below, we look at those 2022 World Series odds; be sure to check back for our MLB picks and predictions as the season ramps up. As for Colorado, signing Kris Bryant feels like a move for ticket sales as this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected . How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Derek Jeter left the Miami Marlins for a reason, he doesnt believe this team is all-in on winnings. The Tigersare in a position where it feels like they are on the verge of putting it all together at the big-league level. It's a win-win, really. Back # WL Div GB # AL WL Pct GB # WL Div GB # The Cardinals often get far too much from their starters than they should. The Blue Jays will, once again, be one of the best fourth-place finishers since MLB went to the six-division format in 1994. From now on, all these projections will update every morning to reflect the latest . The model doesn't think the signings make Texas a full-fledged contender just yet, but it sees this as a major step in the right direction. Disappointment in 2021 compelled the New York Mets to spend even more money this offseason. Although Jos Abreu left as a free agent to sign with the Astros in the offseason, the core of the roster that won the division title two years ago is still largely intact, making Chicago an obvious rebound candidate in 2023. I don't know why, though. The rotation is strong, especially after signing Carlos Rodn. But ZiPS doesnt see it that way, and neither does PECOTA. Each game is then simulated 20,000 times with park factors included in each matchup. The top of the MLB power rankings remains steady and it's likely to stay that way. The one thing missing is another quality outfielder to fill out the lineup. Even more surprising, potentially letting Freddie Freeman walk in free agency. But the top two teams in the NL are the same as last year's: the Dodgers and Giants. Bo Bichette is talented enough to take another step forward and join Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. as an MVP contender. Fun fact: He finished the 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021 seasons with a combined batting average in the .290s, so maybe it wasn't surprising that he finished his first MLB season 91 games for the . MORE:Reds, As top list of five MLB fan bases experiencing post-lockout blues. As part of our year-round MLB coverage, well provide analysis, the latest news and MLB trade rumors. The results, Marcus Stroman being replaced by Max Scherzer and holes in the lineup being filled by Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. The Line: Man City -240 / Newcastle United +550 // Total: 2.5. But after an offseason spent filling out their roster with solid role players, ZiPS and PECOTA both think they have a good chance to break their ignominious drought in 2023. . Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. But more than anything, the model is high on the pitching, with Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery and a healthy Luis Severino leading the team in 2022. We do like the Sean Manaea addition, it solidifies one of the best rotations in baseball. No one saw the San Francisco Giants being that good last season, they surpassed their wildest expectations. For now, well keep the Yankees in the No. The Blue Jays have constructed one of the most talented rosters in the AL, combining impressive young players such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk and Alek Manoah with veteran stars such as George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Matt Chapman, but the club has yet to break through as an AL powerhouse. 2. The Tigers also signed a pair of top free agents in Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez to provide some more established threats to the team.